Faceoffs: How Much Do They Matter?
Team: NHL Faceoff Analytics
- Program: Computer Science
- Course: Other
Project Description:
How much do faceoffs actually matter in NHL games? Many of the seismic developments in hockey analytics recently have been characterized by the importance of puck possession, a key determinant in the latest models such as expected goals and other metrics like Corsi. Yet amid this shift to focusing on possession, there is yet to be consensus or any similarly robust models on the importance of faceoffs, the most frequent and decisive determinant of possession. This project analyzes how faceoffs drive offensive and defensive results and impact teams winning games.
Project Photo:
Project Poster
Project Post Summary:
Faceoff wins and losses matter but not as much as the starting situation of a given faceoff. In the case of offensive zone or defensive zone faceoffs, the team with the more favorable offensive state at the location of the faceoff will still be expected to achieve more expected goals than the other team regardless of which team wins the faceoff. The logical end point at which non-faceoff, in-game events take precedence over game play rather than the preceding faceoff is worthy of debate. However, using time of a zone change as a logical starting point and noting that on average 22.5 seconds elapse before the first zone change after a faceoff, we can estimate that a faceoff win in the offensive zone by the offensively positioned team is worth about 0.052 expected goals and a faceoff win in the defensive zone by the defensively positioned team is worth about 0.049 expected goals. On a more general note spanning all situations, a faceoff win is worth an average of 0.015 expected goals. This may seem tiny but becomes quite notable when considered in the context of the average NHL game featuring 59.3 faceoffs. This suggests there are nearly 0.89 expected goals per game up for grabs at the faceoff dot. Accounting for both the gain of winning a faceoff for your team and forfeited gain of stealing a faceoff win from the other team, winning just six more faceoffs a game would be the equivalent of adding 0.18 additional expected goals in offense each game. That translates to 15 additional expected goals over the course of a full season or roughly the equivalent of adding an additional middle-six forward that could easily cost $4 million annually against the salary cap for the likely lower cost of personnel that can win six more faceoffs. That surplus value represents nearly five percent of the salary cap, which is invaluable to any team with Stanley Cup aspirations. Our research suggests that faceoffs represent a market inefficiency and ripe opportunity for NHL teams to cost-effectively win more games. Faceoffs matter.
Student Team Members
- Tad Berkery
- Max Stevens
- Sam Oberly
- Justin Nam
- Abdelrahman Hamimi
- Arjun Deckha