Conflict Prediction Methodologies: Literature Review and Recommendations For CAPI

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Program: Computer Science

This project attempts to find possible areas for improvement in the JHU Information Security Institute’s Cyber Attack Predictive Index (CAPI) risk assessment methodology. This is undertaken by comparing and contrasting CAPI’s practices with those of similar studies that have sought to measure the probability of kinetic warfare between and within state actors. Following the analysis of the strengths and limitations of each methodology, this project recommends adjustments to CAPI that will more accurately reflect the conditions on the ground, such as placing greater emphasis on situational factors.

Anton Dahbura

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